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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. 
 
Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. 
 
This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. 
 
You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. 
 
So what’s going on? 
 
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. 
 
Presenter: Tim Harford 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald 
Editor: Richard Vadon

RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. 
 
The US is no exception.
 
To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 
 
"Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. 
 
We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. 
 
Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: James Beard

Is RFK right about US sperm counts?

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.

These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.

One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner’s Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017.

More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time. 

Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner’s curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting”.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Richard Thaler and The Winner’s Curse

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects.

So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop?

Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market.

Guests:
Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times
Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure Liberum

Presenter and Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Sound Engineer: Andy Mills

Is there a stock market crash coming?

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. 
The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.

Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicolas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has there been a $50 trillion wealth transfer to the richest Americans?

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again.
 
One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: 
 
"a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is diabetic' 
 
Diabetes does carry a huge burden of health, but are his numbers right and how much of a problem is diabetes in the US and around the globe?
 
We speak to diabetes expert and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, Professor Dianna Magliano to find out more. 
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Studio Manager: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is RFK Jr right about China's diabetes rate?

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. 

Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very big number. But is it true? We speak to Historian Dénes Harai whose paper: 'Counting the Stakes: A Reassessment of Vlad III Dracula’s Practice of Collective Impalements in Fifteenth-Century South-eastern Europe' attempts to set the record straight. 

Let's travel back to 1431 to separate the math's from the myth. 

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Halloween special: How many people did the real Dracula impale?

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer. 

Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. 

If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should hear.

Tim sat down to talk it all over while Corinne was in the UK to promote her new book on the subject - titled Femonomics in the UK, and Having It All in the US.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is your housework split sexist?

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? 
We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Reporter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Image credit: Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right?

The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true?

The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean?

And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a marathon run. We ask a scientist if data can help him finish faster.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Richard Thaler and The Winner’s Curse

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