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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.

But what does the data tell us?

Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world.
 
That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.

If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk 
 
Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)

(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol

Returning Special Guest appearance:

Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. 
 
The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. 
 
From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.

If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?

(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot. 

(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability? 

(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 

Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research. 

Special guest appearance: 

Elis James

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?

The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. 

Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?

Andrew's new book is '1929: Inside the Crash'.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim.

(08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in…

(16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores?

(21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 

Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute
Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack
John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London
Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Education, Education, Education (and Immigration)

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe? 

We look into what the data actually tells us. 

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us.

(06:58) Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one.

(14:44) Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers.

(23:37) And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests:
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. 

Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. 

Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean? (00:32)

A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone. (10:26)

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer? (21:07)

And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon. (09:10)

Contributors:
Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics
John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times
Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’
Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy Associates

Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?

Tim Harford discovers that health statistics contradict a report which says obesity is worsening. Plus, he fact-checks: armed police shooting statistics; reports that the UK's had the worst winter storms in 20 years; media reports about controversial Channel 4 programme, Benefits Street; a study that says an apple-a-day really keeps the doctor away.

Obesity crisis?

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