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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 
100% of the team on More or Less were confused.

What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.

To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Researcher: Kateryna Pavlyuk
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Trump fact-check: Do the US and Venezuela have 60% of the world’s oil?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.

(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.

(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.

(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.

Guests: 
Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen
Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved?

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame?
Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story.
“We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.”
Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out. 

CONTRIBUTORS
Robin Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s Food and Nutrition Directorate
Professor Steve McGrath, a research scientist at Rothamsted Research

CREDITS
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are carrots becoming less nutritious?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.

(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.

(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?

(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.

Guests: 
Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University
Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing
Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of Cambridge

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Are bad teeth the number one reason kids go to A&E?

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. 
This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences.
And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high.
Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.
We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself. 

Contributor:
Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe

Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Could this be the strongest El Niño in 1,000 Years?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?

(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.

(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?

(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.

Guests: 
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data
Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Why are so many ex-prisoners being sent back to prison?

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.
 
But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics.
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound engineer: James Beard
Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is every card shuffle unique?

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? 

No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.

To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. 

From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

Bonus podcast: Norman Numbers

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?

Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.

“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.

We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.

To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Krista Beighton
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.

Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.

“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.

To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. 

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?

Florence Nightingale became one of the icons of Victorian Britain for her work as a nurse during the Crimean War and the public health improvements she successfully campaigned for later on. Tim Harford discusses how she and her ‘Nightingale Circle’ used spectacular diagrams to explain health statistics persuasively with RJ Andrews, editor of “Florence Nightingale, Mortality and Health Diagrams”.

Florence Nightingale and how she visualised data

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