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Lyt når som helst, hvor som helst 

BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

More or Less: Behind the Stats

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?

Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.

“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.

We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.

To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Krista Beighton
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.

Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.

“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.

To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. 

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. 

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. 

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths. 

But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more. 

If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. 

This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?

How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?

We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.

As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.

But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not.
 
Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty Images

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.

But what does the data tell us?

Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world.
 
That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.

If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk 
 
Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.

(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).

(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)

(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol

Returning Special Guest appearance:

Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. 
 
The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. 
 
From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.

If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?

(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot. 

(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability? 

(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.

More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.

Guests: 

Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research. 

Special guest appearance: 

Elis James

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?

The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. 

Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?

Andrew's new book is '1929: Inside the Crash'.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

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