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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? 

Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths? 

Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct? 

s there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise. 

If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Contributors: 
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge 
Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research 

Credits: 
Presenter: Tim Harford 
Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill 
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown 
Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. 

But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. 

At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone. 

Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months.

But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela’s has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades? 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill

Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world?

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates:

Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration?

Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries?

Is the gap between rich and poor growing?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
Lukas Lehner, Assistant Professor at the University of Edinburgh
Arun Advani, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and a Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick.
Alex Scholes, Research Director at NatCen

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Immigration, benefits and inequality

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:

Are one in four pensioners millionaires?

Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Are our prisons going to run out of space?

Is the weather getting weirder?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:
Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab
John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Older people, education, prisons and the weather

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:

Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?

Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?

Is violent crime going up or down?

Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics
Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower
Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Sex, drugs and empty homes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS:

Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last?

What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?

After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?

What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?

What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP)
Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK
Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: Health

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy:

Is the cost-of-living crisis over?

The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number?

When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services?

Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK?

Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation
Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies
Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde
John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford
Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Stats of the Nation: The Economy

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2026

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeil
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2025

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

This week, China released its third quarter GDP figure. At 3.9%, its rate of economic growth is better than many analysts expected, but still significantly short of the 5.5% target the Chinese government had set itself. 

There was an unprecedented delay in releasing this particular GDP stat - and that delay coincided with the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress. President Xi Jinping was reappointed for a historic third term at the twice-a-decade gathering. 

Some analysts found the delay suspicious. Did President Xi postpone the release of the GDP figures so it wouldn’t tarnish the congress? And can the figure of 3.9 per cent be trusted anyway? 

Paul Connolly investigates with the help of John Burn Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter at The Financial Times; Associate Professor of Government at Cornell, Jeremy Lee Wallace and Dr Linda Yueh, Oxford University economist and author. 

Presenter and Producer: Paul Connolly 
Editor: Simon Watts 
Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson 
Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian 

(Image: Chinese President Xi Jinping: Mark R Cristino/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Can China’s GDP data be trusted?

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