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Message Heard

An ex-Al Qaeda jihadi turned MI6 spy and a former monk turned filmmaker, have been embedded at the heart of conflicts in the Middle East. Together Aimen Dean and Thomas Small unpack the realities of war, fundamentalism and their global implications through first-hand experience.

CONFLICTED

Is Donald Trump mad? Or is he a practitioner of the Madman Theory — and therefore not mad at all?

James D. Boys, author of ⁠⁠U.S. Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory: From Nixon to Trump⁠⁠, argues that the Madman Theory is not madness, but the performance of madness: a tactic by which a sane leader feigns irrationality to make an adversary believe there is even a one percent chance of overwhelming, disproportionate force.

In this new Conflicted Conversation, Boys explains:

 What the Madman Theory means

 Donald Trump, unpredictability and Trump Derangement Syndrome

 Nuclear strategy, Eisenhower, and Cold War brinkmanship

 Barry Goldwater, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the politics of nuclear fear

 Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger and the Madman Theory in Vietnam

 Trump’s use of Madman tactics against North Korea, Iran, NATO and trade partners

 Whether Trump’s second-term grand strategy is chaos, coercion or calculated geopolitical pressure

Follow James on X: ⁠https://x.com/jamesdboys⁠

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠ 

*** ⁠⁠DONATE to Thomas’s fundraising campaign!⁠⁠ ***

*** ⁠⁠WATCH the campaign's documentary film! ⁠⁠***

Find us on X: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. ⁠⁠Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Madman Theory from Nixon to Trump

*** ⁠⁠DONATE to Thomas’s fundraising campaign!⁠⁠ ***

*** ⁠⁠WATCH Thomas's documentary film!⁠⁠ ***

Aimen is back with a huge amount of behind-the-scenes information on what’s been happening in the Middle East in the past three weeks—especially on the real reasons the UAE withdrew from OPEC, and what’s been going on inside Donald Trump’s head as he tries to chart a course to victory in the Iran War.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

 The recent discovery of HUGE shale oil reserves in the UAE

 The Mar-a-Lago deal the UAE struck with Trump

 Why the recent OPEC shake-up had NOTHING to do with Saudi Arabia

 The truth about UAE and Saudi attacks on Iran

 Did the UAE, Saudi, and Qatar really beg Trump not to resume the war?

 How Iran’s military capability remains STRONGER than people think

 The corruption behind Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the Iran War

 The benefits and liability of Trump as a War Leader

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The UAE’s OPEC Withdrawal & Trump’s Wartime Dilemma

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Marc David Baer, Professor of International History at the London School of Economics, about his new book Children of Abraham: The Story of Jewish-Muslim Relations. 

Marc discusses:

 The recent stabbing in Golders Green, North London

 The myth of utopian co-existence and the counter-myth of total antagonism

 The earliest encounters of Jews and Muslims in Arabia

 The Qur'an's mixed messaging about Jews

 The reality of Sharia dhimmitude laws

 Jewish-Muslim relations in the Khazar Kingdom, in Al-Andalus, and in the Ottoman Empire

 Colonialism and the rupture of Jewish-Muslim relations

 Antisemitism, Islamophobia, and Jewish-Muslim solidarity today

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠⁠ 

Find Marc on X: https://x.com/MarcDavidBaer1

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠

And YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Utopia or Dystopia? The Truth About Jewish-Muslim History

As we eagerly await Aimen’s return to Conflicted next week, today Wassim Nasr returns to the show. As only Wassim can, he draws on his expertise of the Sahel to explain the remarkable events in Mali over the past several weeks — events which Aimen forecast on the show back in January.

Wassim explains:

 France’s failed counterterrorism strategy in Mali

 JNIM’s emergence from AQIM and local insurgencies

 Iyad Ag Ghaly’s political and jihadist leadership

 The junta’s repression and strategic miscalculations

 The JNIM–FLA alliance in northern Mali

 The 25 April 2026 coordinated attacks

 Negotiating with Islamists after the War on Terror

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Follow Wassim on X: https://x.com/SimNasr

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mali’s Crisis is Not What it Seems

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Sir Vince Cable, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, about his new book Eclipsing the West: China, India and the forging of a new world.

Sir Vince discusses:

 Postcolonial state-building, development economics, and his formative experiences in Kenya

 Globalisation, financialisation, and the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis

 The rise of China and India as “superstates” in a new tripolar world

 Geo-economics, US–China rivalry, and the breakdown of the liberal international order

 Democracy versus authoritarianism and the crisis of liberal governance

 Ideology, nationalism, and the limits of rationality in geopolitics

 Multipolarity, global disorder, climate crisis, and the future of world order

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠ 

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠

And YouTube: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced by Thomas Small & Ross Field and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sir Vince Cable: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy

Aimen's in the thick of it this week so isn't able to appear on the show. Sitting in for him is Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli researcher and analyst, and a doctoral student at Princeton University. During field research in Iraq in 2023, she was kidnapped by Kata'ib Hezbollah and held in captivity for over two years, suffering torture and solitary confinement.

In what we hope will be the first of many appearances on Conflicted, Elizabeth discusses:

 Saddam Hussein’s faith campaign and the rise of Shia religious politics in Iraq

 The Sadrist movement in Iraq and Muqtada al-Sadr

 The politicisation of sectarian identity in post-2003 Iraq

 Iraqi militias as criminal-political enterprises engaged in in theft, extortion, oil smuggling, and dollar smuggling

 The difference between Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah

 The impact of militia rule on ordinary civilian life

 Iraq’s extreme inequality despite its oil and gas wealth

 The 2003 Iraq War and the debate over American responsibility

 Iraqi elite agency and the failures of Iraq’s political class

 The 2010 Iraqi election crisis and Nouri al-Maliki’s return to power

 The Iraqi constitution and the failure of constitutional democracy

 Iraq’s dependence on oil revenues and the Strait of Hormuz

 The impact of the current Iran war on Iraq’s economy

 Iranian attacks on Iraqi oil exports and oil tankers

 The U.S. military presence in Iraq after ISIS

 American influence over Iraqi prime ministerial politics

 Nouri al-Maliki, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Ali al-Zaidi

 Fa’iq Zaidan and the power of Iraq’s judiciary

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Elizabeth's personal website: https://elizabeth-tsurkov.net/en/

Find Elizabeth on X: https://x.com/LizHurra

Find Elizabeth on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-tsurkov-79491b15/

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iraq: Anatomy of a Broken State

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks to journalist Tim Weiner about his new history of the CIA in the 21st century, The Mission, and about the enduring tension between intelligence gathering and covert action. Drawing on four decades of reporting, Weiner argues that the CIA’s greatest failures arise when it abandons its core purpose of understanding the world in favour of trying to change it.

Weiner explains:

 How he began covering the CIA during the Reagan era and what drew him into intelligence reporting

 Why the CIA is best understood as an instrument of presidential power, not an independent actor

 The agency’s post–Cold War collapse and its loss of mission before 9/11

 How the War on Terror transformed the CIA into a global counterterrorism and paramilitary force

 The origins, logic, and consequences of torture, black sites, and the failure of interrogation

 The intelligence failures behind the Iraq War and how ‘facts were fitted around the policy’

 The rise of drone warfare under Obama and the normalization of targeted killing

 Covert operations from Peru to Syria, including the limits and dangers of programs like TIMBER SYCAMORE

 The difference between espionage and covert action—and why only the former can prevent war and save lives

 Why the greatest danger today is a president who ignores intelligence while using the CIA’s coercive power

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠ 

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠

And YouTube: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small .
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The CIA: What is It For?

Thomas expresses his growing conviction that President Trump has utterly mishandled the Iran War, while Aimen describes: how the final, fatal phase of the Islamabad peace talks was a utter humiliation for Trump; what's going on inside the heads of GCC leaders regarding the White House's leadership; and the Islamic Republic's new delay tactics. 

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Problem of President Trump

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks to bestselling novelist and historian Jack Carr. A former Navy SEAL sniper, Carr talks about his phenomenal book Targeted: Beirut: The 1983 Marine Barracks Bombing and the Untold Origin Story of the War on Terror as well as his upcoming novel The Fourth Option.

Jack describes:

 His path from childhood fascination with war to becoming a U.S. Navy SEAL sniper

 SEAL training: Hell Week, mental fortitude, and what separates those who quit from those who don’t

 Boarding Iraqi oil tankers: enforcing sanctions at sea and policing the post–Gulf War international order 

 His experience as a sniper in Iraq and Afghanistan

 The 1983 Beirut barracks bombing and its role in shaping modern terrorism and U.S. foreign policy

 The mistakes in US counter-terrorism policy: how limited responses can shape enemy strategy over time

 From warfighter to writer: how Carr’s military experience informs his novels and nonfiction on the War on Terror

Jack Carr's official website: https://www.officialjackcarr.com/

Find Jack on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jackcarrusa/

Find Jack on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jackcarrusa/

Find Jack on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JackCarrUSA

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠ 

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠

And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠

And Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠

And YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced by Thomas Small and edited by Alan Leer.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jack Carr: My Journey Through America’s Long War

Aimen describes the counter-coup which has taken place inside the Islamic Republic against Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, the key to understanding the failure of the Islamabad peace talks. 

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Power Struggle Inside Iran

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