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Message Heard

An ex-Al Qaeda jihadi turned MI6 spy and a former monk turned filmmaker, have been embedded at the heart of conflicts in the Middle East. Together Aimen Dean and Thomas Small unpack the realities of war, fundamentalism and their global implications through first-hand experience.

CONFLICTED

Elizabeth Tsurkov returns for another Conflicted Conversation. This time, the conversation turns to Israel after October 7th. Elizabeth traces her own political journey from the Israeli right to a hard-won humanism, then explains how Israel’s old security doctrine collapsed — and why the new one may lead not to safety, but to permanent war.

Elizabeth and Thomas discuss:

 Israel’s security doctrine after 7 October

 Israel’s shift from deterrence to pre-emption

 Why deterrence without a political endgame failed

 Gaza, Hamas and the limits of military victory

 Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel’s buffer-zone strategy

 Israel’s new "buffer zone" security perimeter

 Iran’s missile threat and Israel’s war with Tehran

 The Abraham Accords, IMEC and bypassing Palestine

 Why real Israeli fears may be producing the wrong answers

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Elizabeth's personal website: ⁠https://elizabeth-tsurkov.net/en/⁠

Find Elizabeth on X: ⁠https://x.com/LizHurra⁠

Find Elizabeth on LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-tsurkov-79491b15/⁠

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Israel’s Road to Endless War

Aimen returns to bring us up to date on all the latest manoeuvrings in the Middle East.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

 Trump’s chaotic, micromanaged Iran diplomacy and reliance on inexperienced “real estate” advisers.

 Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Turkey, and Egypt as flawed or compromised mediators with “skin in the game.”

 Why Aimen thinks Switzerland would be the proper neutral US–Iran mediator.

 Oman’s tilt toward Iran amid assumptions of American decline and future Iranian regional weight.

 The UAE–Saudi split over Iran: Emirati hawkishness versus Saudi caution and strategic bruising.

 Saudi resentment over Yemen, Houthi attacks, Israel’s freer hand, and lack of US security guarantees.

 Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Iran: efforts to decouple the Lebanon front from the US–Iran track

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Has Trump Lost the Middle East?

Hamza Abu Howidy returns for another Conflicted Conversation. Last time he appeared, he told us his personal story of growing up in Hamas-ruled Gaza, how he was imprisoned and tortured by Hamas for speaking out against their oppression, and how he entered into exile in Germany just before the 7 October attacks changed everything.

This time he switches from Gaza to the West Bank, telling Thomas all about the other side of Palestine — a side which goes overlooked, but which is increasingly becoming a zone of almost unbearable conflict.

Hamza and Thomas discuss:

 Settler violence as settler terrorism

 How Israeli settlements undermine the Oslo process 

 Settlement expansion as a strategy to prevent a Palestinian state 

 The shift from a two-state ideal to a one-state reality 

 The Hardal movement and Smotrich’s political world 

 The Hilltop Youth: origins, ideology and violence 

 The dual legal system in the West Bank 

 The Yehuda Shmuel Sherman incident and the revenge attacks that followed 

 E1 and the threat to a viable Palestinian state 

 The West Bank economy after 7 October 

 Palestinian municipal and national elections 

 Israeli elections and the lack of hope for political change 

 Israel’s post-7 October security doctrine 

 The Board of Peace and the problem of Hamas disarmament 

 Arab disillusionment with resistance ideology 

Find Hamza on X: https://x.com/HowidyHamza

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm 

Find us on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠

⁠And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The West Bank Is Reaching Breaking Point

Because Aimen is still away, we’re taking this opportunity to introduce you all to our executive producer Jake Warren. A journalist and programme-maker, Jake not only had the idea for Conflicted, he is also the founder of Message Heard, the company that produces the show.

Jake and Thomas discuss:

 Conflicted’s origin story

 Jake’s Hungarian-Jewish grandfather who escaped on the Kindertransport

 His early work for Vice Media in North Korea, Rwanda, and Lebanon

 How he won the trust of notorious Islamist preacher and organiser Anjem Choudary while covering his story

 Visiting the family of murdered soldier Lee Rigby

 How Jake first came across Aimen’s story

 How Thomas and Aimen became friends

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/ 

Find Jake on X: https://x.com/TheJakeWarren

Find us on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted

And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod

And YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictedYoutube 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

My Road to Conflicted (with Jake Warren)

In this latest Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks with Tory MP Sir Jeremy Hunt. Over fourteen years of Conservative government, Hunt served as Culture Secretary, Health Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer. But in this discussion, Jeremy draws especially on his eventful year running the Foreign Office to argue against Western defeatism and to make the case for liberal democracy.

Sir Jeremy discusses:

 The view from inside power during Britain’s 2010–2024 crisis years

 Britain’s imperial inheritance, post-Brexit identity, and the “Global Britain” problem

 Trump’s 2018 NATO shock and Hunt’s case for higher European defence spending

 China, Russia and Iran as the new autocratic challenge to liberal democracy

 Yemen and the Stockholm Agreement as a tragic test of humanitarian diplomacy

 Iran, hostage diplomacy, the JCPOA and the limits of Western coercive power

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm 

Find us on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted

And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced by Thomas Small and Ross Field and edited by Mariana Ramirez-Zablah.
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Jeremy Hunt: Democracy’s Defeat Is Not Inevitable

Is Donald Trump mad? Or is he a practitioner of the Madman Theory — and therefore not mad at all?

James D. Boys, author of ⁠⁠U.S. Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory: From Nixon to Trump⁠⁠, argues that the Madman Theory is not madness, but the performance of madness: a tactic by which a sane leader feigns irrationality to make an adversary believe there is even a one percent chance of overwhelming, disproportionate force.

In this new Conflicted Conversation, Boys explains:

 What the Madman Theory means

 Donald Trump, unpredictability and Trump Derangement Syndrome

 Nuclear strategy, Eisenhower, and Cold War brinkmanship

 Barry Goldwater, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the politics of nuclear fear

 Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger and the Madman Theory in Vietnam

 Trump’s use of Madman tactics against North Korea, Iran, NATO and trade partners

 Whether Trump’s second-term grand strategy is chaos, coercion or calculated geopolitical pressure

Follow James on X: ⁠https://x.com/jamesdboys⁠

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. ⁠⁠Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Madman Theory from Nixon to Trump

Aimen is back with a huge amount of behind-the-scenes information on what’s been happening in the Middle East in the past three weeks—especially on the real reasons the UAE withdrew from OPEC, and what’s been going on inside Donald Trump’s head as he tries to chart a course to victory in the Iran War.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

 The recent discovery of HUGE shale oil reserves in the UAE

 The Mar-a-Lago deal the UAE struck with Trump

 Why the recent OPEC shake-up had NOTHING to do with Saudi Arabia

 The truth about UAE and Saudi attacks on Iran

 Did the UAE, Saudi, and Qatar really beg Trump not to resume the war?

 How Iran’s military capability remains STRONGER than people think

 The corruption behind Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the Iran War

 The benefits and liability of Trump as a War Leader

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The UAE’s OPEC Withdrawal & Trump’s Wartime Dilemma

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Marc David Baer, Professor of International History at the London School of Economics, about his new book Children of Abraham: The Story of Jewish-Muslim Relations. 

Marc discusses:

 The recent stabbing in Golders Green, North London

 The myth of utopian co-existence and the counter-myth of total antagonism

 The earliest encounters of Jews and Muslims in Arabia

 The Qur'an's mixed messaging about Jews

 The reality of Sharia dhimmitude laws

 Jewish-Muslim relations in the Khazar Kingdom, in Al-Andalus, and in the Ottoman Empire

 Colonialism and the rupture of Jewish-Muslim relations

 Antisemitism, Islamophobia, and Jewish-Muslim solidarity today

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠⁠ 

Find Marc on X: https://x.com/MarcDavidBaer1

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠

And YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Utopia or Dystopia? The Truth About Jewish-Muslim History

As we eagerly await Aimen’s return to Conflicted next week, today Wassim Nasr returns to the show. As only Wassim can, he draws on his expertise of the Sahel to explain the remarkable events in Mali over the past several weeks — events which Aimen forecast on the show back in January.

Wassim explains:

 France’s failed counterterrorism strategy in Mali

 JNIM’s emergence from AQIM and local insurgencies

 Iyad Ag Ghaly’s political and jihadist leadership

 The junta’s repression and strategic miscalculations

 The JNIM–FLA alliance in northern Mali

 The 25 April 2026 coordinated attacks

 Negotiating with Islamists after the War on Terror

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Follow Wassim on X: https://x.com/SimNasr

Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mali’s Crisis is Not What it Seems

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas talks to Sir Vince Cable, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, about his new book Eclipsing the West: China, India and the forging of a new world.

Sir Vince discusses:

 Postcolonial state-building, development economics, and his formative experiences in Kenya

 Globalisation, financialisation, and the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis

 The rise of China and India as “superstates” in a new tripolar world

 Geo-economics, US–China rivalry, and the breakdown of the liberal international order

 Democracy versus authoritarianism and the crisis of liberal governance

 Ideology, nationalism, and the limits of rationality in geopolitics

 Multipolarity, global disorder, climate crisis, and the future of world order

Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠ 

Find Conflicted on X: ⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Facebook: ⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠

And Instagram: ⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠

And YouTube: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠⁠ 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced by Thomas Small & Ross Field and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Has Trump Lost the Middle East?

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