Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China

Two weeks after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement shook global markets, he has now offered most countries a 90-day reprieve—while simultaneously escalating trade tensions with China by imposing harsher penalties. So far, China has responded by matching each tariff hike with its own response.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of its geoeconomics initiative, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to delve into the complexities of the China-US trade war. Together, they explore the current tariff landscape, the strategies employed by both nations, and the implications for Europe and other external actors. They also discuss China’s aggressive response, potential trade chokepoints and the potential for regional diplomacy.

Who will blink first, Xi Jinping or Trump? Is this a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies? And what risks and opportunities does the US-China trade war carry for Europe?

This podcast episode was recorded on April 17th 2025.

Bookshelf:

The Most Dangerous Place: A History of the United States in South Asia by Srinath Raghavan

The Year of the Hare by Arto Paasilinna

GeoTechnoGraphy: Mapping Power and Identity in the Digital Age by Samir Saran and Anirban Sarma

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