Nyd den ubegrænsede adgang til tusindvis af spændende e- og lydbøger - helt gratis
4 of 3
Økonomi & Business
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.
The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.
Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
© 2008 Princeton University Press (E-bog): 9781400833092
Release date
E-bog: 29. december 2008
Tags
Over 600.000 titler
Download og nyd titler offline
Eksklusive titler + Mofibo Originals
Børnevenligt miljø (Kids Mode)
Det er nemt at opsige når som helst
For dig som vil prøve Mofibo.
1 konto
20 timer/måned
Eksklusivt indhold hver uge
Fri lytning til podcasts
Gem ubrugt tid
Ingen binding
For dig som lytter og læser ofte.
1 konto
100 timer/måned
Eksklusivt indhold hver uge
Fri lytning til podcasts
Ingen binding
For dig som lytter og læser ubegrænset.
1 konto
Ubegrænset adgang
Eksklusivt indhold hver uge
Fri lytning til podcasts
Ingen binding
For dig som ønsker at dele historier med familien.
2-6 konti
100 timer/måned pr. konto
Fri lytning til podcasts
Kun 39 kr. pr. ekstra konto
Ingen binding
2 konti
179 kr. /månedDansk
Danmark