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ECFR

Weekly podcast on the events, policies and ideas that will shape the world.World in 30 minutes is curated by Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), and features top-level speakers from across the EU and beyond to debate and discuss Europe’s role in the world. It was awarded “Best podcasts on EU politics” by PolicyLab in 2019.Member of the EuroPod network.
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Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

﻿This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania.

 

Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome means for prime minister Donald Tusk’s struggling government, and the future of EU cohesion. Nawrocki set to block Tusk’s judicial reforms and amplify Euroscepticism—but what about Poland’s place in the EU? And how will the development impact the country’s support for Ukraine?

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2025.

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Nawrocki’s win: What Poland’s populist president means for Europe

Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international order.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to discuss the Middle East and changing global dynamics. How might the fall of the Assad regime reshape the region’s political and security landscape? What does the development mean for Syria? And how are regional powers adapting to the uncertainty of the second Trump administration? 

This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2024 

Bookshelf:

Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell

In Praise of Hatred by Khaled Khalifa

Why War ? By Richard Overy

 

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Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad

As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable elements of statecraft.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR’s geoeconomics lead, and Abraham Newman, professor at the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and co-author of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction when it comes to geoeconomics. How can Europe remain relevant in geoeconomics? What are the main obstacles to it doing so? And what risks does Europe face by sticking to business as usual?

 

Bookshelf:

The Nightingale Gallery by Paul Doherty

Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power by Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman

The Other '68ers: Student Protest and Christian Democracy in West Germany by Anna Von Der Goltz

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A fragmented world: Europe’s geoeconomic dilemmas

As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees?

 

Bookshelf:

The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier Cercas

Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona Johnson

Talks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel Čapek

How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024

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Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future

2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?

Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via mark.leonard@ecfr.eu.

Bookshelf:

A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna Reid

Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen

2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro 

This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024

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Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025

On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker, deputy managing director at leading Polish think-tank Polityka Insight, Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, to discuss Poland’s presidency of the EU Council. What does its motto of “security” mean for Europe in practice? Will the upcoming Polish presidential election impact its direction? And, with France and Germany missing in action, can Poland seize the moment to assume greater leadership in Europe?

 

Bookshelf:

Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz

Kaput: The End of the German Miracle by Wolfgang Münchau

Sophie’s World by Jostein Gaarder

 

This podcast was recorded on 8 January 2025

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Poland’s presidency: A new European leadership

With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching for Deutschland explores the foreign policy dimensions of Germany’s electoral campaign.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes editorial director and senior policy fellow Jeremy Cliffe, and ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow Jana Puglierin, to discuss their new podcast, and Merz’s foreign and domestic policies. What exactly is the “Merz Doctrine”? How might Merz deal with the second Trump administration? And what are his views on Russia and Ukraine?

The podcast was recorded on January 16th 2025

Bookshelf:

The Divider Trump in the White House, 2017-2021by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser 

Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard 

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Election countdown: New Germany, new Europe, new podcast

ECFR is live from the WEF 2025 in Davos, where top business leaders are gathered to discuss the state of the world. After Donald Trump’s inauguration just three days ago, attendees eagerly await the absent US president's video address on Thursday afternoon.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt, co-chair of ECFR’s council and former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Science Po and former foreign minister of Spain, to discuss their insights from public conversations and private meetings at this year’s WEF. What is most striking about the 2025 edition? How is the mood around the global economy? And does Trump’s return mean for the threat of tariffs and war in Ukraine?

 

Bookshelf:

Open but Secure: Europe’s Path to Strategic Interdependence by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with ECFR

This podcast was recorded on January 23rd 2025

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Insights from Davos: Trump’s impact on the global economy

Less than two weeks into his second term and President Donald Trump is already dominating global headlines. From reigniting trade war threats and doubling down on his ambitions to acquire Greenland, to withdrawing from multilateral agreements and demanding that NATO allies allocate 5% of their GDP to defence—his administration is swiftly attempting to reshape global dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s ally Elon Musk is stirring political controversy and further unsettling European leaders. 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Lons, deputy head of ECFR’s Paris office, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to discuss how European capitals are responding to Trump’s dramatic return to the White House. Which major issues are they trying to deal with? And how are Europeans and the EU preparing for all the disruption to come? 

Bookshelf: 

Geopolitics and Democracy: The Western Liberal Order from Foundation to Fracture by Peter Trubowitz and Brian Burgoon 

Orbital by Samatha Harvey 

Realpolitik How to face the global disorder by Giampiero Massolo 

The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser 

Cocktail sugar : et autres nouvelles de Corée by Kim Ae-ran, Go Eun-ju, Jeon Gyeong-nin, Eun Hee-kyung, Oh Jung-hi, Han Kang, Park Chan-Soon, Pak Wan-So 

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Europe confronts Trump: the politics of transatlantic relations

As a committed NATO ally and EU partner, Norway is deeply embedded in Western security structures and stands firmly with Ukraine against Russian aggression. But its ‘Norwegian model’ of foreign policy—engaging in dialogue with actors and countries whose values and interests contradict its own—is unique. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, Norway’s deputy foreign minister and member of the Norwegian Labour Party, to discuss the country’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement. What defines this method? How does it serve Norway in a world of geopolitical fracture and crises? How does Norway benefit from talking to almost everyone—and what is the risk of not having these conservations?

This podcast was recorded on January 28 2025

Bookshelf

The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks with everyone and still believes in multilateralism by Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik

The Art of Diplomacy: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements that Changed the World by Stuart Eisenstadt

The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile, Justice and Britain's Colonial Legacy by Philip Sands

Non-Zero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright

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The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks to everyone

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability.

 

Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?

The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025.

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NATO and Europe first: Britain’s new Strategic Defence Review

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