How the police use proven AI to predict future crime

Police departments around the world are using this startup's AI to predict future crime.

Mami Kajita, founder of Singular Perturbations, explains the success of their models, the public reaction to the technology, and how the physics models of glass transition lead to a crime prediction AI.

We debate the future impact of crime prediction technology, and we also talk about how researchers and entrepreneurs can better connect and collaborate.

It's a great conversation, and I think you'll enjoy it.

Show Notes

Telling police what future crime is likely to occur Who else, besides the police, can use these tools How the physics of glass transition lead to crime prediction How to sell software to the police (and other government agencies) Real world trials led to a 68% decrease in crime What data go into Crime Nabi's models The public reaction to future crime prediction Unintended consequences and and the future of crime prediction How founders can find mentors and advisors How researchers and entrepreneurs can better connect and collaborate

Links from the Founder

Everything you ever wanted to know about Singular Perturbations Check out Mami's published research Connect with Mami on LinkedIn Friend her on Facebook

Transcript Welcome to Disrupting Japan, straight talk from Japan’s most successful entrepreneurs. I’m Tim Romero and thanks for joining me. Today we're going to talk about predicting future crime, and not in terms of 1950s science fiction, but in terms of real software being used right now by police departments all over the world. We talk with Mami Kajita of Singular Perturbations about their Crime Nabi AI, and how this technology is starting to change policing. In real world use Crime Nabi has already resulted in crime reductions of over 50% in areas where it's been tested around the world. In our conversation, Mami and I dig into these numbers and we talk about the somewhat surprising inputs that go into training the Crime Nabi AI. And of course, we also talk about the very real potential dangers for misuse and what Singular Perturbations is doing to make sure this technology is a force for good. Along the way, we talk about how founders can find good mentors and advisors, the proper balance between research and sales, and some really good advice about how to sell to national governments as a startup. But, you know, Mami tells that story much better than I can, so let's get right to the interview.

Interview Tim: So, cheers. Mami: Okay, cheers. Tim: So, I'm sitting here with Mami Kajita, the founder and CEO of Singular Perturbations, the AI for Crime Prediction. So, thanks for sitting down with me. Mami: Yeah, thank you so much. I'm very honored to be here, and thank you so much for this opportunity. Tim: I'm glad to have you here. In the intro, I explained a little bit about what Singular Perturbations does. But I think you can explain it much better than me. So, what does Singular Perturbations do? Mami: We predict future crimes in using AI technology and we provide operation management services for police departments and local governments. And the name of our product is Crime Nabi. Tim: So, you are telling police departments where future crime is likely to occur? Mami: Yes. Using this technology we can provide the area where the risk is higher than the other area. Tim: Okay. And how do they use this information? What do they do with it? Mami: We provide operational management services in the police department, and there is a team who patrols outside and in Japan, and many police departments doesn't use crime prediction technology before patrols. They have not so much established plan. Tim: So, the police departments are using this predictive technology to decide where to send patrols? Mami: Yes, yes. Tim: Okay. What kind of predictions does it make? Does it predict the type of crime or just the level or…? Mami: Our crime prediction technology predict future crimes, when and where, which crime type likely to occur. Tim: Looking at your website though, you also have an app that individual citizens can download? Mami: Yeah. This mobile application have users of citizens and in Japan, in local governments, they have a team who patrols outside using blue patrol car, and we provide our crime prediction mobile application for them. Tim: Oh, okay. So, it's not individual citizens, it's still the government? Mami: Yes. Tim: It's just not police? Mami: It's not police department, but many of blue patrol cars are operated by local governments or citizen. Tim: So, it's similar to in America we have neighborhood watch. Mami: Yes, neighborhood watch. Tim: It's a similar program to that. Mami: Yes. Yes. Tim: Let's dive deep into the technology, the business model a little bit later. And let's talk a little bit about you. So, you founded Singular Perturbations back in 2017. And back then you were a researcher at the University of Tokyo. So, did it start out as a research project? How did you get the idea to start this? Mami: I have a background of theoretical physics. My research topic is about glass transition. That topic is very different from the crime prediction technology, but I worked for university for several years, and after that I have to move to Italy because -- so my husband have to move to Italy, so I… Tim: Went with him. Mami: Yes. At the time I quit my research topic and I was thinking about my future. And my research background is theoretical physics, but I think that theoretical physics is a very basic topic. And theoretical physics people have a potential to make in models. Tim: I've always thought, I majored in physics myself, but I've always thought that physics is kind of the liberal arts of the sciences. Mami: Yes, yes. Tim: You understand a little bit of everything but until you get a PhD, you're not really qualified to do anything in particular. So, the mathematics and the modeling for the glass transitions, is it similar? Mami: Yes. And very similar. Using this background, this kind of basic liberal arts background helps to create a new business. I think that there is a many similarity between researcher and entrepreneur. Tim: I think so too. And I want to talk about that, but I'm really curious, what is the connection between the physics of glass transition and crime prediction? It's not an obvious link. Mami: Yes. Yeah, yeah. Eight years ago I started to live in Italy in Bologna. And I have experiences to be a pick pocketed several times. And at the time I wanted to start some new services using theoretical physics background. So, I studied to develop mobile application and I collected crime data. And then I developed a mobile application, which shows when and where the past crime occurred. And also I found a theoretical paper, which is about crime prediction technology. And this paper was written by theoretical physicist. So, I started to analyze the crime data using this kind of technology. And then I invented a new algorithm to predict future crime. And this achieved very good accuracy. Tim: Were you a researcher while you were living in Italy, or was this just a side project you were doing for fun? Mami: Ah, this is for fun. Tim: No, that's awesome. I love that. Mami: Yeah. And after that, I sold this mobile application to a Japanese company and then I wanted to start a new crime predictions project. Tim: So, after you sold that mobile application company, what brought you back to Tokyo? How did you start this startup? Mami: After I came back to Japan, I entered a company where I sold my application and I tried to make a business using crime prediction, but it has several problems. So, I founded my company by myself after that. At the time, I was only visiting researcher at University of Tokyo, and I met one policeman. He's very interested in my crime prediction technology, so he can invite me to a project of police departments. Tim: This is interesting to me. So, when you went to the University of Tokyo as a researcher, were you going in thinking that, okay, I really want to start another company now? Or were you thinking, okay, I really want to get back to theoretical physics research? Mami: After I have experienced long time research, I was very devoted in that topic but I also think that maybe I can help some people, but the impact is not so big. But using my background, I can make more big impact using this kind of technology. That's why I was interested in the development of mobile application and the foundation of my company. Tim: I think that is one of the most exciting things and the most addictive things about startups and many people discover it when they first start how valuable what you make is to your customers and how appreciative they are. And that's something you usually don't get in the business world or in as a researcher. Mami: Yeah. Yeah. Tim: That's nice. So, you're still doing fundamental research and that was a NEDO grant, right? Mami: I guess NEDO grant, yes. Tim: So, one of the things a lot of researchers struggle with is the pull between doing long term fundamental research and having to sell this much product this quarter to make sure you're on track to get your next funding round. How do you handle that conflict? Mami: Yes. At the first, when I found my company, we can only provide crime prediction report, but this type of report doesn't change the police department's operation. So, we want to change the operation. Tim: Well, let's talk about some of your successful trials and proof of concepts you've run so far. You launched a project in Adachi ku in 2020 in Nagoya last year? So, what were the results? Mami: Yeah. In Nagoya City introduced our product and many other local governments and the police departments started proof of concept. And now we started proof of concept in Latin American countries.