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J.P. Morgan Global Research

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

Global Data Pod

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.

 

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.

 

This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more. EM also needs to offer a sufficient growth pick-up to pull in flows. We also discuss China’s role as an attractor or substitute for broader EM capital flows. Greater macro stability for many EMs have also necessitated lower capital flows and enabled EM to face three big economic and funding shocks over the last 5 years.

Speakers:

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5040188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a sharp break still to come?

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing. A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off. 

 

Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist

 

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at:

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030422-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0

For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing conviction in the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. We see the risk of a September easing as high, contingent upon further evidence of softening in the US labor markets.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the forecast even further.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here

A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern. 

 

Speakers: 

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark

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