Can Japan Survive Its Demographic Crisis? | Samo Burja

Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Demographic Crisis

Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century

Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly

Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates

Cultural Challenges

Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children

Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids

97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options

Economic Implications

Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective

Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging

Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain

Military Transformation

From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs

Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required"

Key player in Taiwan scenarios

Geopolitical Positioning

Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US

Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism

Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia

Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them.